Akinori Abe

From logical viewpoint

Recently, researches on discovery science and knowledge discovery have been studied for various fields. Indeed, these studies deal with real and large data, however basically, they are types of learning that learn tendencies from the sets of data in the same or similar categories. Accordingly, they cannot foretell the events that are different from the trend. When we predict unknown events, it is quite unnatural to have a stochastic model assumption that is made only from the known data and ignores abnormal phenomena. Of course, it is important to make a stochastic model to predict a future feature, but it is more important to find factors that cannot be reasoned by a stochastic process and are quite critical to an unknown event. That is, finding exception rules and exception facts is also important to risk management or risk avoidance in a real world....
Chance Discovery is a research to discover chance!!! (For details pls refer to to the CD site.)
By Ohsawa, chance is defined as follows;

A chance (risk) is a new event/situation that can be conceived either as an opportunity or a risk.

I will approach Chance Discovery from the abductive viewpoint.

Definition: Chance

  1. Chance is a set of unknown hypotheses. Therefore, explanation of an observation is not influenced by it. Accordingly, a possible observation that should be explained cannot be explained. In this case, a hypotheses base or a knowledge base lacks necessary hypotheses. Therefore, it is necessary to generate missing hypotheses. Missing hypotheses are characterized as chance.
  2. Chance itself is a set of known facts, but it is unknown how to use them to explain an observation. That is, a certain set of rules is missing. Accordingly, an observation cannot be explained by facts. Since rules are usually generated by inductive ways, rules that are different from the trend cannot be generated. In this case, rules are generated by abductive methods, so trends are not considered. Abductively generated rules are characterized as chance.
Abductive Analogical Reasoning (AAR) can generate missing hypotheses. In a context of Chance Discovery, hypotheses generated by AAR are regarded as chance in a sense defined in the above definition. Therefore, it is nice to use AAR as a tool for chance discovery to give some suggestion for possible sings of rare ot novel observation.

My standpoint is to apply Abductive Analogical Reasoning to Chance Discovery.

In the above definition, we defined two types of chance. The followings show two types of chance discovery by using a framework of AAR.

  1. Type 1: When some of hypotheses are unknown. When some of necessary hypotheses are unknown (not found), the current observation cannot be explained. In a context of chance discovery, chance seems to be a set of unknown hypotheses. And this type of inference can be regarded as pure abduction.
  2. Type 2: When some of rules are unknown. When some of necessary rules are unknown, even if we are aware of all of symptoms, the future observation cannot be explained (predicted). In this case, usually, reasons are shown afterwards. This type of inference can be regarded as AAR.
The first one is to show unseen or unknown events as chance and the second one is to show the known events as chance by generating new rules. Both predictions can be done by abduction from the possible observations. Therefore, from this formalization, a chance seems to be a set of abductive hypotheses that is generated in a logical way.
Actually, in this framework, since abduction is an inference from an observation to hypotheses, it seems that all possible observations are necessary to be prepared. However all possible observation do not need to be prepared. We only need to explain or predict our concerning observations.

From psychological viewpoint

  1. Chance Discovery in Multi-lingual Translation Site
    Recently, the data on web site has been thought of as meaningful data to analyze our society. It is used to see the trends in specific field. In addition, it can be used to predict the next trend or current hidden needs. This is because the data is natural (unintentional). We run the multi-lingual machine translation service site. In fact, in more than one year, we have collected huge mount of log data. They are user's access data, user's translation data (word, text, url, language pair etc.), and user's feedback comments. From these data, we can obtain a lot of information. We analyzed log data to find a certain chance.
    From the viewpoint of commercially maintaining machine translation site, chance will be new business model. On the other hands, from the viewpoint of sociology, chance will be results from the change of user's interests. They reflect the situation of society and if we use them correctly, we can guess novel or rare events before they explicitly appear in the world.

    (business) chance:

  2. User's interests change
    Recently, the necessity to the assistance of creative work has been increased. Creative works are usually regarded as specialized skills. However, from the viewpoint of chance discovery, creative work can be thought of as chance. According to the definition of (chance), the creative work can be thought of as chance. This is because creativity means novel (not rare) and creative work comes from nothing or from something relative but whose relation was hidden.
    This research showed chance as creative work, and shows the process of chance discovery. This formalization comes from our experience. We work in abroad and does not bring enough references and there is not proper libraries around office and house. When he wrote paper, he naturally used an internet search engine like yahoo. Each search engine has its own feature. Therefore we must know their feature to obtain proper results. This task will be a sort of craftsman performance. Sometimes search engine returns different result from our intention. Usually, such wrong results are useless. However, in some cases, the wrong result leads us novel thinking or confirm our original target. We modeled this type of process as a chance discovery process.

Applications of Chance Discovery

  1. Creativity support

    See above.
    In addition, we are taking into consideration an aspect of chance discovery to the Augmented Music Composition Support that supports music composition by showing differnence between the composition of experts and that of the users.

  2. Chance Discovery in Nursing Informatics (NI)

    Logical view:
    Abst: We analyze the feature of chance in nursing risk management for better management. Recently, it has been recognized that medical risk management is very important both for hospitals and hospital patients. To reduce nursing accidents, examples of nursing accidents are usually collected for analysis. This allows us to obtain certain tendencies of nursing accidents and causality between environment and nursing accidents. Such knowledge can be useful in nursing risk management, but is not fully adequate. In addition, in a real situation, it is necessary to deal with a hidden relationship between an ignored event or factor and an accident. Thus, we analyze the feature of hidden factors in nursing accidents and propose a way to determine chance (= hidden or ignored factors) as abductive hypotheses.

    ***Nursing risk prediction as Chance Discovery***

    Risk management itself can be thought of as an application of Chance Discovery. A chance in nursing risk management can be defined as an ``ignored'' event, factor, environment, personal relationship or personal matter that has the possibility to cause a serious nursing accident or incident in the future.

    in the case of a slip, due to unexpected events, although an ideal or desired situation has not actually been achieved, we unconsciously convince ourselves that we have achieved such an ideal or desired situation. Thus because of (unintentional) discontinuation of tasks, we cannot keep our contexts. A chance exists at the hatched circle in the above figure.

    How to determine a chance?

    It is difficult to detect a critical point beforehand. However, it would be possible to abductively detect a critical point as a point where an inconsistency between an ideal result and his/her actual activity occurs. For example, if we use a hypothetical reasoning framework such as Theorist, we might be able to deal with the situation. In the case where we know all of the possible hypotheses and their ideal observations, we can detect malpractice. This is because if he/she selects a wrong hypothesis set, an ideal observation cannot be explained. A simple framework is shown below:

    Linguistic view:

  3. Chance Discovery in Medical Informatics (MI)

    Regarding medical diagnosis support system, the problem of knowledge base incompleteness makes it necessary to combine an inference part based on abduction and a knowledge acquisition and learning part based on induction. We think it is necessary to do an automatic medical rule generation method from the viewpoint of induction and chance discovery, to do abduction for chance discovery, and to seek for possible methods including KeyGraph to achieve medical chance discovery.

    Our definitions of chance in MI:

    1. A phenomenon that is slightly different from the typical phenomenon.
      This can be regarded as a symptom in the gray zone. The knowledge is similar or close to the typical one. It might be regarded as an exception if we extend the definition of exception.
    2. A supporting phenomenon that is quite rare or novel, so we cannot think an existing or known knowledge works for a reason.
      In this case, the result (observation) is explicit, but we cannot find any explanations or reasons (hypotheses in abduction) for the result.
    3. A phenomenon that is so rare or novel that we have no knowledge to deal with it, therefore, we cannot infer any results.
      In this case, in spite of any symptoms, results are implicit. This is because we do not have any knowledge from which to diagnose from the symptoms.

    To do chance discovery in MI, we can use logical methods etc.

    • the role of induction: to detect the gray zone as well as to build a standardized knowledge base.
    • the role of abduction: to show (suggest) known events as chance by generating new or novel knowledge.
    • the role of KeyGraph: graphically outputs a relationship among elements in a data set: to find rare or hidden relationships.

    Currently, we have the following conclusions;
    Since disease is an outbreak with many factors, such as virus and environment, etc., it is quite difficult to find a chance from only medical data. Consequently, we need to build a medical knowledge base with consideration of the environment. Similarly, we need to make an inference with consideration of the environment. We think a relationship between medical data and the environment is hidden, so it is necessary to find such a hidden relationship by abduction and KeyGraph.

Curation (new direction) Curation
In general, curators have responsibilities for various aspects of exhibition activities. However, the most important activity will be a plan of exhibition. For that the above activities such as research, interpretation and acquisition are necessary. They should properly exhibit a truth which is result of their researches and interpretations.

From the exhibition ``Bacon and Caravaggio'' in Museo e Galleria Borghese, Roma, Italy (2009):
Coliva pointed out ``this exhibition proposes a juxtaposition of Bacon and Caravaggio. It intends to offer visitors an opportunity for an aesthetic experience rather than an educational one. [...] An exhibition of generally conceived and prepared with a historicist mentality, but when it materializes, the simultaneous presence of the works --- in the sense precisely of their hanging --- opens up parallels and poses very complex and spontaneous questions, which may even be unexpected and not all stem exactly from questions initially posed by art-historical motives and theses. There are parallels that appear by themselves to the visitor's sensibility and are not imposed by a theory of the curator. This is certainly one aspect of the vitality of exhibitions, which make the works live and in this are necessary for the works. The display itself, in the sense of the presentation of the works that appear in an exhibition ---the spectacle of their being on display --- creates trains of thought that are independent of the interpretations provided by art-historical scholarship. And since for a profound experience of understanding a work these ramifications sometimes are more surprising and significant than the achievements of a specialized scholarship in its own field of action, an art raised to the status of an enigma like Bacon's seems to require the gamble of provoking these parallels. And since at the time, and again because of its qualitative greatness, Caravaggio's art deserves a similar provocation, the juxtaposition thus satisfies a legitimate aesthetic desire. On the other hand, the juxtaposition is a modest and prudent solution, not so much for demonstrating, but for offering the attribute of ``genius'' --- which the expressive common language attributes to the great artist of the past --- opportunities to manifest itself. And the juxtaposition is induced by the Galleria Borghese itself, one of the most sensitive spaces with the simultaneous presence of genius.''

Besides the importance in aesthetics and philosophy, I think the most important point is that ``There are parallels that appear by themselves to the visitor's sensibility and are not imposed by a theory of the curator.'' That is, though actually a curator has a certain philosophy, he/she does not insist his/her philosophy but audiences will be able to discover additional meanings as well as the curator's intended philosophy.

Curation and chance discovery:
``Chance discovery'' research is a type of research to establish methods, strategies, theories, and even activities to discover a chance. In addition, it aims at discovering human factors for chance discoveries. Therefore not only researchers in computer science and engineering but also researchers with different expertise such as psychologists, philosophers, economists and sociologists take part in chance discovery research.
Thus it is very important to offer opportunities where receivers can feel and obtain chances in various situations. Many applications on chance discover have been proposed in these 10 years.
However, strategies how to display chances have not been discussed in many applications. Strategy for discovering chances is of course important. In addition, strategy for an easy discovery interface of chances is more important. The above interface based application can be classified to curation type applications.
My experience in a market store ---meats (chicken) and asparagus were sold together--- can be regarded as a type of chance discovery application, because the strategy generated a hidden or potential purchase chance to customers. Customers who were inspired by the combination of chicken and asparagus would have bought either or both of them for dinner. Actually, this is not a task in museums, but it can be also regarded as a curator's work (curation). Because the strategy includes philosophy in a combination of items, and based on the philosophy it will offer certain effects to audiences. Visualization strategies such that referred to above function as curation. Because they display candidate chances in a manner where important or necessary items or events can be easily or interactively discovered by the user.

Curation of the business situation in the internet age:
Sasaki defined curation as follows:
Curation: From huge amount of information source, according to the curator's sense of value and world view, picking up information, giving a new meaning to it and sharing it with many persons.
Sasaki used a metaphor of biotope to illustrate the promotion of a unknown or less known but a good artist.
A ``curation'' for business in the network age seems an interaction between customer (user) and goods. There will not be a system to insist trends from big companies, but trends will be constructed or selected according to customers' interaction on networks. In addition, a (small) company or community can use this system to give rare goods a certain trend. That is, no curation is directly performed by a ``system manager.'' Instead a ``system manager'' tries to use a certain community effectively. A ``system manager'' provides a certain information to those who will be interested in it. The information will be shared in the community and sometimes it will be delivered to other communities having the same or similar interests. There exist a certain intention, but the feature of curation is rather vague and changeable. Perhaps the task as a curation is to offer a certain environment for communication among customers. Thus generation of customers communication is important in this type of curation.

[New definition of curation in chance discovery]


  1. Abe A.: The role of abduction in Chance Discovery, Proc. of SCI2001, Vol. VIII, pp. 400-405 (2001)
  2. Abe A.: User's interests change as Chance Discovery, Proc. of KES2002, pp. 1291-1295 (2002)
  3. Abe A., Toong C. K., Nakamura M., Tsukada M., and Kotera H.: Finding Chance in Multi-lingual Translation Site, Proc. of AAAI Fall Symp. on Chance Discovery: The Discovery and Management of Chance Evnet (FS-02-01), pp. 22-27 (2002)
  4. Abe A.: Is forecasting harder than it used to be?, panel discussion in AAAI Fall Symp. on Chance Discovery (2002) slide
  5. Abe A.: The role of abduction in Chance Discovery, New Generation Computing, Vol.21, No.1, pp. 61-71 (2003)
  6. Abe A., Kogure K. and Hagita N.: Discovery of Hidden Relations from Medical Data, Proc. of HCI2003 3rd. Int'l Workshop on Chance Discovery, pp. 37-43 (2003)
  7. Abe A.: Abduction and Analogy in Chance Discovery, in Chance Discovery (Osawa Y. and McBurney P. eds.), Chap. 16, pp. 231-248, Springer (2003)
  8. Abe A., Berry R., M. Suzuki, and Hagita N.: Augmented Music Composition Support as Active Mining, Technical Report of IEICE, Vol. 103, No. 304, pp.59-64 (Technical Report of JSAI, SIG-KBS-A301, pp.59--64) (2003) paper
  9. Abe A. and Oehlmann: From Data Mining to Interpersonal Communication for Scenario Development, Proc. of ECAI2004 Workshop on Chance Discovery, pp. 1--8 (2004)
  10. Abe A., Kogure K. and Hagita N.: Determination of A Chance in Nursing Risk Management, Proc. of ECAI2004 Workshop on Chance Discovery, pp. 222-231 (2004)
  11. Abe A., Kogure K. and Hagita N.: Nursing Risk Prediction as Chance Discovery, Proc. of KES2004 Vol. II, pp. 815--822 (2004).
  12. Abe A. and Ohsawa Y. eds: Readings in Chance Discovery, International Series on Advanced Intelligence (2005)
  13. Abe A., Toong C. K., Nakamura M., C. W. Lim, Tsukada M., and Kotera H.: Finding Chance in Multi-lingual Translation Site, in Readings in Chance Discovery (Abe A. and Ohsaw Y. eds.), Chap. 3, pp. 25--36 (2005)
  14. Abe A.: Creativity as Chance Discovery, Proc. of JCIS05 1st Annual Workshop on Rough Sets and Chance Discovery, pp. 1782--1785 (2005)
  15. Abe A., Naya F., Ozaku H.I., Kuwahara N., and Kogure K.: Scenario Violation in Nursing Activities, Proc. of the ICML05 4th Int'l Workshop on Chance Discovery, pp. 102--109 (2005)
  16. Abe A., Naya F., Ozaku H.I., Sagara K., Kuwahara N., and Kogure K.: Risk Management by Focusing on Critical Words in Nurses' Conversations, Proc. of KES2005, Vol I, pp. 1167--1173 (2005)
  17. Abe A., Ozaku H.I., Kuwahara N., and Kogure K.: Scenario-base Construction for Abductive Nursing Risk Management, Proc. of IPUM2006, pp. 206--213 (2006)
  18. Abe A., Ozaku H.I., Kuwahara N., and Kogure K.: What Should be Abducible in Abductive Nursing Risk Management?, Proc. of KES2006 (LNAI4253), Vol III, pp. 22--29 (2006)
  19. Abe A., Ozaku H.I., Kuwahara N., and Kogure K.: Relation between Abductive and Inductive Nursing Risk Managements, Proc. of RM2006 (JSAI2006), pp. 121--132 (2006)
  20. Abe A. and Kogure K.: E-Nightingale: Crisis detection in nursing activities, in Chance Discoveries in Real World Decision Making (Ohsawa Y. and Tsumoto S. Eds.), Data-based Interaction of Human intelligence and Artificial Intelligence Series: Studies in Computational Intelligence, Chap. 15, pp. 357--371, Vol. 30, 2007, XIV, 404 (2006)
  21. Abe A., Ozaku H.I., Kuwahara N., and Kogure K.: Cooperation between Abductive and Inductive Nursing Risk Management, Proc. of RM2006 (ICDM2006), pp. 705--708 (2006)
  22. Abe A., Ozaku H.I., Kuwahara N., and Kogure K.: Scenario Violation in Nursing Activities --- Nursing Risk Management from the viewpoint of Chance Discovery, Soft Computing Journal, Springer, Vol. 11, No. 8, pp. 799--809 (2007)
  23. Abe A., Ozaku H.I., Kuwahara N., and Kogure K.: Relation between Abductive and Inductive Types of Nursing Risk Management, Post-proc. of JSAI2006 (LNAI 4834), pp. 387--400 (2007)
  24. Abe A., Ozaku I.H., Ohsawa Y., Sagara K., Kuwahara N., and Kogure K.: Communication error determination model for multiply layered situations, Proc. of RI2007 (JSAI2007), pp. 38--48 (2007)
  25. Abe A., Ozaku H.I., Sagara K., Kuwahara N., and Kogure K.: Nursing Risk Management by Focusing on Critical Words or Phrases in Nurses' Conversations, Int'l J. of Knowledge-based and Intelligent Engineering Systems, Vol. 11, No. 5, pp. 281--289 (2007)
  26. Abe A., Ohsawa Y., Ozaku H.I., Sagara K., Kuwahara N., and Kogure K.: Communication error determination model for multi-layered or chained situations, Proc. of PAKDD 2008 Working Notes of Workshops on Data Mining for Decision Making and Risk Management, pp. 305--316 (2008)
  27. Abe A, Hagita N, Furutani M, Furutani Y, and Matsuoka R.: Categorized and Integrated Data Mining of Clinical Data, in Communications and Discoveries from Multidisciplinary Data (Iwata S., Ohsawa Y., Tsumoto S., Zhong N., Shi Y., Magnani L. eds.), Studies in Computational Intelligence, Vol. 123, pp. 315--330, Springer Verlag (2008)
  28. Abe A., Hagita N., Furutani M., Furutani Y., and Matsuoka R.: Exceptions as Chance for Computational Chance Discovery, Proc. of KES2008 (LNAI5179), Vol. II, pp. 750--757, Springer Verlag (2008)
  29. Abe A.: Cognitive Chance Discovery, in Universal Access in Human-Computer Interaction --- Addressing Diversity (Stephanidis eds.), UAHCI 2009, Held as Part of HCI International 2009, Proceedings, Part I (LNCS5614), pp. 315--323, Springer-Verlag (2009)
  30. Abe A., Hagita N., Furutani M., Furutani Y., and Matsuoka R.: An Interface for Medical Diagnosis Support ---from the viewpoint of Chance Discovery, International Journal of Advanced Intelligence Paradigms, Vol. 2, No. 2/3, pp. 283--302 (2010)
  31. Ohsawa Y., Abe A., and Nakamura J.: Chance Discovery as Analogy based Value Sensing, International Journal of Organizational and Collective Intelligence, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 44--57 (2010)
  32. Abe A., Ohsawa Y., Ozaku I.H., Sagara K., Kuwahara N., Kogure K.: Communication Error Determination System for Multi-layered or Chained Situations, Fundamenta Informaticae, 98, pp. 123--142 (2010)
  33. Abe A., Ohsawa Y., Kuwahara N., Ozaku I.H., Sagara K., Kogure K.: Scenario Violation as Gaps between Activity Patterns, New Mathematics and Natural Computation, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 193--208 (2010)
  34. Abe A., Hagita N., Furutani M., Furutani Y., and Matsuoka R.: Categorized and Integrated Data Mining of Medical Data from the Viewpoint of Chance Discovery, Proc. of KES2010 (LNAI6278), Part III, pp. 307--314, Springer Verlag (2010)
  35. Abe A.: Abduction dealing with potential values, Proc. SMC2010, pp. 1279--1285 (2010)
  36. Abe A.: Curation in Chance Discovery, Proc. ICDM2010 5th International Workshop on Chance Discovery, pp. 793--799 (2010)
  37. Abe A., Hagita N., Furutani M., Furutani Y., and Matsuoka R.: An interactive interface for medical diagnosis support, in Sequence and Genome Analysis: Methods and Applications (Zhongming Zhao eds.), Chap. 17, pp. 289--305, iConcept Press (2011)
  38. Abe A.: Curation and Communication in Chance Discovery, Proc. of IJCAI2011 6th International Workshop on Chance Discovery, pp. 3--8 (2011)
  39. Abe A.: Relation between chance discovery and Black Swan awareness, Proc. of KES2011 (LNAI6882), Part II, pp.495--504, Springer Verlag (2011)
  40. Abe A.: Curation in Chance Discovery, in Abe A. and Ohsawa Y. eds.: Advances in Chance Discovery, SCI 423, pp. 1--18, Springer Verlag (2012)
  41. Abe A.: Cognitive Chance Discovery: from abduction to affordance, in Philosophy and Cognitive Science (Magnani L. and Li L. eds), SAPERE 2, pp. 155--172, Springer Verlag (2012)
  42. Abe A.: Chance discovery and black swan: from the viewpoint of abduction and affordance, Proc. of KES2012, pp. 1638--1645, IOS Press (2012)
  43. Abe A.: Curation in chance discovery again, Proc. of EWCDDS12, pp. 37--42 (2012)
  44. Abe A. and Ohsawa Y. eds.: Proc. 1st European Workshop on Chance Discovery and Data Synthesis (EWCDDS12) (2012)
  45. Abe A.: Visualization as Curation with a holistic communication, Proc. of TAAI2012, pp. 266--271 (2012)
  46. Abe A.: Data Mining in the Age of Curation, Proc. of IEEE International Workshop on Data Mining for Service (DMS2012), pp. 273--279 (2012)
  47. Abe A.: Relation between chance discovery and Black Swan awareness: from the viewpoint of abduction and affordance, International Journal of Knowledge and Systems Science (IJKSS), Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 62--76 (2013)
  48. Abe A.: Shikake as affordance and curation in chance discovery, Proc. of AAAI2013 Spring Symposium on Shikakelology, SS-13-06, pp. 2--10 (2013)
  49. Abe A.: Cognitive Chance Discovery: from Abduction to Affordance and Curation, Proc. of ICCI*CC2013. pp. 308--314 (2013)
  50. Abe A.: Relationship between curation, chance and shikake, Proc. of KES2013, pp. 1219--1228, Elsevier (2013)
  51. Abe A.: Curating and mining (big) data, Proc. of ICDM2013 Workshop on MoDAT, pp. 664--671 (2013)
  52. Kubo M. and Abe A.: Critical Points in Conversations from the Perspective of Chance Discovery, Proc. of KES2014, pp. 969--978 (2014) Abe A.: Data mining considering curation, Proc. of WIC2014, pp. 386--391 (2014)