Abstract

The Role of Awareness in Chance Discovery

Ruediger Oehlmann (Kingston University)



Chance discovery is concerned with events or situations that affect human decision making; such events or situations are viewed as opportunities or risks. In order to utilise a chance, the reasoner has to be aware that a given event is a chance. This study investigates whether chance discovery also requires awareness of precious chances. The first experiment presents an experimental group that has successfully conducted a chance discovery, with an analogous situation, which provides an opportunity for discovering a new chance. Subjects were given a hint to use their experience with the previous chance discovery. This experiment resulted in a significant difference in chance discoveries between the experimental group and the control group. A replication of the experiment without the hint did not result in a significant difference. This indicates that the awareness generated by the hint was necessary to facilitate the discovery of a new chance. A third experiment showed that chance discoveries may be remembered in the form of implicit memory. This was tested by asking subjects to make feeling of knowing (FoK) judgements. Subjects of the experimental group that had previously discovered a chance made more FoK judgements than the control group. The fourth experiment showed that, even without explicit awareness, implicit memory can facilitate the discovery of new chances. The design was similar to the third experiment but rather than making FoK judgments subjects had to explain an observation that potentially involved the discovery of a non-analogous chance. Subjects of the experimental group made more discoveries of the new chance than subjects of the control group. This result suggests that implicit memory in the absence of explicit awareness of previous chances is suffcient to facilitate the discovery of new chances.